YEREVAN—Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has reiterated his demands on Armenia, calling for the return and reintegration of around 300,000 Azerbaijanis who he says were displaced from Armenia in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Aliyev says that these individuals, who he described as having been “deported,” have formally appealed to the Armenian government to allow their return to their “historical lands.”
“We have not received a reply from the Armenian leadership on how they envision the process of reintegrating Azerbaijanis into their historical lands,” Aliyev stated in an interview with Russian media on December 18. The announcement came amid ongoing treaty negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which have seen some progress but remain mired in unresolved issues.
Aliyev added that two major points remain unresolved in the draft peace treaty between the two countries. According to Aliyev, Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed on 15 out of the treaty’s 17 articles, but Azerbaijan’s demands to mutually renounce lawsuits in international courts and remove third-party forces deployed along the border remain unfulfilled.
In particular, Aliyev says that Armenia must recognize Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and refrain from involving third-party forces, including representatives from NATO member states, along the shared border. These demands come after Armenia’s Constitutional Court clarified that its constitution does not contain any territorial claims against Azerbaijan, a point Aliyev has repeatedly contested.
Another of Aliyev’s significant demands is the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, which was established to mediate the Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Aliyev questioned the continued relevance of the group, stating that Armenia’s recognition of Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan should render its role obsolete.
“The Minsk Group has long ceased to be functional, and Armenia’s reluctance to join us in appealing for its dissolution demonstrates that Armenian revanchism is a serious threat,” Aliyev said.
Aliyev also turned his attention to France and the European Union, sharply criticizing their involvement in the region. He accused France, in particular, of supplying Armenia with offensive and lethal weapons, which he says pose a practical threat to Azerbaijan. “Those supplying arms to Armenia should be aware that they will bear direct responsibility for any future developments. Naturally, any official territorial claims against us must cease,” Aliyev said.
In a similar vein, Aliyev criticized the EU’s civilian monitoring mission on the Armenian side of the border, arguing that its expansion beyond the initial two-month agreement was done without Baku’s consent. He suggested that the mission has become a permanent fixture, with personnel from NATO member states now involved. Aliyev questioned the mission’s legitimacy and its alignment with Armenian sovereignty.
Amid diplomatic tensions, Azerbaijan has approved a dramatic increase in its military budget, with defense and national security expenditures rising by approximately 2 billion AZN (around $1.4 billion USD). This surge in military spending comes as Azerbaijan continues to import weapons from various countries, including Serbia, Bulgaria and Israel. Journalist Davit Galstyan has reported an uptick in arms shipments, including flights from Serbian and Bulgarian hubs, along with continued deliveries from Israel.
Azerbaijan has also increased its purchase of arms from Russia and other sources, signaling preparations for potential future conflicts. “Yerevan will not be able to withstand an arms race with Baku,” Aliyev said. “If they plan another provocation against us, no one will help them.”
Political technologist Tigran Kocharyan has expressed concerns over Azerbaijan’s increasing military readiness and budget expansion, suggesting that Azerbaijan is not interested in peace. In an interview with Channel 5 on December 18, Kocharyan argued that Azerbaijan is determined to force Armenia into capitulation, both diplomatically and militarily.
He criticized Armenia’s leadership, which he said behaves as if the country were “on the side of Fiji or Vanuatu,” rather than facing immediate threats to its territorial integrity. Kocharyan warned that should Azerbaijan or Turkey gain control over the so-called “Zangezur Corridor,” an extraterritorial corridor through southern Armenia, an attack on Iran could follow within hours.
Further complicating the situation, Aliyev suggested during his interview that Armenia is on the verge of withdrawing from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance led by Russia. He claimed that Armenia had already de facto withdrawn from the organization but was waiting for a “green light” from the U.S. State Department before making the move official.
Meanwhile, in Armenia, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan highlighted the continuing threats to Armenia’s sovereignty. Speaking at the 5th Global Forum Against the Crime of Genocide in Yerevan, Mirzoyan noted that the international community had failed to prevent the atrocities of 2020 and expressed concerns over the ongoing risk of further violence.
“Regrettably, the international community tends to pay more attention and talk about genocides and other mass atrocities only after they have already happened and become established facts. We witnessed this in our region not only over 110 years ago in [the] case of the Armenian Genocide but also literally last year, when it seemed that the world could clearly see enough risk factors that could lead to irreversible consequences,” Mirzoyan said.
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