YEREVAN—A recent statement by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has added a new dimension to ongoing negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Fidan announced on November 6 that Turkey’s relations with Armenia would only improve after the signing of a treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, marking a shift from their previous commitment to continue talks without preconditions. Fidan said that Turkey views the resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict as key to stability in the South Caucasus, and Armenia-Turkey normalization is tied to the successful conclusion of the peace talks.
In response to Fidan’s comments, Kristine Vardanyan, an MP from the “Armenia” faction of the National Assembly, criticized the ongoing negotiations between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey. She stated that there is no genuine peace process; rather, Armenia is being forced to make unilateral concessions to meet the demands of Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Vardanyan said that the term “peace” in the context of the proposed treaty is misleading. “It is being used to deceive the Armenian public and to improve Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s international image. What, if anything, is Azerbaijan offering in return for these concessions? The negotiations seem to prioritize Azerbaijan’s and Turkey’s interests over Armenia’s national concerns,” she said.
Recent polling data reflects public opinion on Armenia’s ongoing diplomatic engagement with Azerbaijan. According to a survey conducted by Gallup International Association in Armenia, most Armenians do not believe a treaty with Azerbaijan will be finalized by the end of the year. In response to the question of whether a treaty will be signed in 2024, 23.4% of respondents said “rather no” and 41.2% “definitely no.” Just 17.5% said “rather yes” and 8.3% “definitely yes.”
The survey also assessed Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan’s approval rating, which dropped to 34.5% in October, compared to 35.1% in July. That is still higher than his approval rating in May of 27.8%, according to the survey. Meanwhile, 57.6% of respondents expressed negative views about his leadership in October.
Despite criticism from opposition voices, the Armenian government continues to lead negotiations with Azerbaijan. Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ani Badalyan confirmed on November 5 that Armenia had received Azerbaijan’s response to its latest proposals, which marks the 11th revision of the draft document. While discussions focus on border delimitation, security guarantees and the return of Armenian prisoners of war held in Baku, no final agreement has been reached.
While progress on the peace talks has been slow, the recent meetings between Armenian and Azerbaijani officials have focused on border delimitation. On November 1, the tenth meeting of the Joint Commission on the Delimitation of the State Border and Border Security between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan took place at the shared border. The meeting was co-chaired by Mher Grigoryan, Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia, and his Azerbaijani counterpart Shahin Mustafayev.
During the meeting, the two sides exchanged updates on internal procedures to finalize the Regulation on the Joint Activities of the Commissions, signed on August 30, 2024. The document, which was ratified by the Armenian parliament and signed by the Armenian president in late October, officially entered into force on November 1, 2024.
The discussions also focused on the sequence of sections of the border where the delimitation process will continue. Both sides reviewed draft guidelines for carrying out the delimitation work and agreed to set a date and location for the next meeting.
Following the meeting of the commissions, deputy prime ministers Grigoryan and Mustafayev held a separate discussion on issues related to transport communications between the two countries.
In the midst of these diplomatic efforts, tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to simmer, as evidenced by a recent incident in Brussels. The Embassy of Armenia in Brussels has filed an official complaint with other diplomatic missions after an alleged death threat was made by Azerbaijan’s Ambassador to Belgium Vagif Sadigov against Armenian Ambassador Tigran Balayan. According to Politico.eu, the confrontation occurred during a reception at the Tangla Hotel organized by the Turkish Embassy to mark Turkey’s national day.
Sadigov denied the incident, stating that such allegations were “becoming ridiculous.” The Armenian Embassy has not provided further details but has officially protested the alleged threat with relevant diplomatic channels. The incident is a significant development in the already tense relations between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey, which have been strained since the 2020 war in Artsakh. This marked the first time the Armenian Embassy has been invited to an Ankara-sponsored event since 2020, according to Politico.eu.
While peace talks continue, such incidents highlight the volatile nature of the negotiations and the challenges facing Armenia as it seeks to balance its diplomatic engagements with Azerbaijan and Turkey while managing domestic pressures.
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