YEREVAN—Israel’s attacks on Lebanon have had a profound impact on the Armenian community, regional analyst Yeghia Tashjian said in an interview with the Weekly. “The relentless bombings have affected Lebanese citizens of Armenian descent, just as they have impacted all communities,” Tashjian said.
Hezbollah fighters and Israeli troops are engaged in heavy fighting after Israel launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon on October 1. This follows two weeks of Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon and southern suburbs of Beirut, which Israel says target Hezbollah infrastructure and leadership. More than 1,000 people have been killed and a million displaced from their homes by Israeli attacks, according to Lebanese officials.
In the wake of Israel’s military actions and its assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27, Iran launched a missile attack on Israel on October 1, which was largely intercepted by Israel with the support of the United States and other allies. The Pentagon confirmed that U.S. naval forces engaged in defensive actions against the Iranian missiles.
The humanitarian situation in Lebanon is dire, as Tashjian outlined. Schools have been forced to close, and many factories and businesses are struggling with import and export difficulties due to restrictions on flights. The destruction of the tourism sector has left hotels and related services inoperative, while the agricultural sector faces challenges as Lebanese farmers are unable to cultivate land in the south and Beqaa due to Israeli airstrikes. “These factors are likely to exacerbate the financial crisis in Lebanon, potentially leading to a new wave of emigration and brain drain,” Tashjian said.
Addressing the possibility of mass immigration among Armenians, MP Hagop Pakraduni, leader of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation in Lebanon and member of the Armenian parliamentary bloc, stated that “for now, there is no significant exodus, as the areas under bombardment are geographically distant from Armenian-populated regions.” However, he expressed hope that if individuals do consider immigrating, “Armenia should remain their priority,” and he expects the Armenian authorities to take measures to facilitate this.
When asked about misconceptions regarding the conflict, Tashjian criticized Western media for presenting a biased narrative. “This is not merely a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, as often portrayed, but rather a genocidal war against the Lebanese people,” Tashjian said. He highlighted the staggering toll on civilians, stating that “thousands have been injured or killed, and over a million displaced, including many children, women and the elderly.” Tashjian recounted witnessing “hundreds of people sleeping on the streets of downtown Beirut without shelter,” underscoring the dire humanitarian crisis. He called on Western media to pressure Israel into agreeing to a ceasefire.
Tashjian also addressed the psychological toll of living in constant fear and uncertainty. He shared a personal experience, stating, “Yesterday, I was walking to the Armenian church in Ashrafieh, which is just 200 meters away, but the sound of drones was so low that I felt I was being chased.” He described a feeling of psychological warfare, despite knowing his neighborhood was not in immediate danger. “We are not just talking about trauma. We are experiencing it daily,” he said, noting that children are frightened and often run home from the sounds of explosions. “This will have a significant traumatic impact on future generations, the repercussions of which we cannot yet fully understand,” he warned.
Tashjian established parallels between the current situation in Lebanon and the 2020 war in Artsakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He explained that the decrease of Iran’s influence in the Levant region corresponds with an increase in Israeli influence. He expressed concern that this shift has direct repercussions for the post-2020 status quo in the South Caucasus, particularly referring to the 44-day war in 2020 and the ethnic cleansing of Artsakh Armenians last September.
Tashjian suggested that Azerbaijan could exploit the turmoil in the Middle East to launch attacks on Armenia’s Syunik region, specifically aiming to control the so-called “Zangezur” corridor. He noted that Azerbaijan may be encouraged by Israel to open a new front against Iran, especially given the geopolitical vulnerabilities along Iran’s border with Armenia.
The recent missile strikes from Iran on Israel serve as a reminder of Iran’s “red lines,” demonstrating that any aggression against Armenia, particularly in the Syunik region, would be met with a similar response, Tashjian argued. “The Lebanese people can now understand the pain of those in Artsakh who were ethnically cleansed and forced to leave everything behind due to Azeri aggression,” he said. “They share in the physical and emotional suffering that comes with such conflict.”
The crisis in Lebanon marks a significant escalation since October 7, 2023, when more than 1,000 Israelis were killed in an attack by Hamas. About 100 remain held hostage, according to Israeli authorities. Israel’s military offensive in Gaza has killed at least 40,000 Palestinians and injured at least 95,000 since October 7, according to local health authorities. Israel faces charges of alleged responsibility for violating the 1948 Genocide Convention at the International Court of Justice.
On Friday, September 27, an Israeli air strike in a southern suburb of Beirut assassinated Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, who had commanded the group for over three decades. Two weeks prior, Israel had officially stated that neutralizing Hezbollah’s attacks would be a key objective of its military strategy.
Under Nasrallah’s leadership, Hezbollah transformed into a crucial element of Iran’s proxy network and played a vital role in its regional strategy. The group fought a war with Israel in 2006, trained and armed members of Iran’s proxy groups throughout the region and supported the Assad regime in Syria. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has emerged as a dominant political and military force.
Since October 7, Hezbollah has engaged in nearly daily exchanges of fire with Israel, resulting in the displacement of tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border. The group vowed to persist in its offensive until a ceasefire in Gaza is achieved.
Israel has ordered the evacuation of more civilians from Lebanese border towns, claiming that its military actions are aimed at Hezbollah and not at the Lebanese population at large. As Israel contemplates its next moves, the situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalations in the coming days.
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