YEREVAN—Ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku this November, Azerbaijan made a surprising move by placing the contentious “Zangezur corridor” issue on pause in its ongoing negotiations with Armenia.
Elchin Amirbekov, a special envoy for Azerbaijan, announced this on August 7 after his visit to the U.S. “The regional communication duties article had been removed from the peace treaty draft,” Amirbekov stated, reflecting a strategic shift in regional geopolitics. “We do not want to complicate the process of concluding a peace agreement.”
Amirbekov continued that Azerbaijan’s primary goal is to address the core issue of Armenia’s supposed illegal territorial claims, which it views as central to the conflict. “Azerbaijan is committed to meeting the expectations of the international community and resolving once and for all the issue of Armenia’s territorial claims. We hope to overcome the remaining obstacles promptly to secure a lasting and irreversible peace,” Amirbekov added.
The primary sticking point in the negotiations involves Azerbaijan’s demand for Armenia to amend or remove the preamble from its constitution. This preamble, which references Armenia’s territorial integrity as well as the 1989 declaration on the unification of Armenia and Artsakh, is seen by Azerbaijan and Turkey as a basis for future territorial claims.
However, Amirbekov’s announcement raises questions about the feasibility of achieving these constitutional changes within the current political framework in Armenia. The Armenian Constitution, derived from the principles of the country’s Declaration of Independence, cannot be amended without significant procedural steps, including a national referendum. Given the current political climate, such changes could provoke considerable internal upheaval.
A Constitutional Reforms Council has been tasked with drafting a new constitution by January 2027, although there are indications that work on constitutional amendments may already be underway. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has suggested that any new constitutional provisions would likely be subject to a public referendum. However, the timing and specifics of such a referendum remain uncertain and politically sensitive.
In spite of Amirbekov’s announcement, an Azerbaijani government website published a renewed demand for an extraterritorial corridor through Armenia today. Tatev Hayrapetyan, an expert on Azerbaijan, shared the statement published on one of the websites managed by the state agencies of Azerbaijan:
“Let’s return to the issue of Zangezur. The transfer of the lands of Western Zangezur to Armenia was a clear injustice toward Azerbaijan and its people. This injustice must be corrected, and it will be. President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly emphasized that we will return to Zangezur. The timing and manner of this will be determined by the president himself, and there is no need for external interference.”
Several factors appear to influence Azerbaijan’s decision to delay discussions on the “Zangezur corridor.” Last fall, Azerbaijan established communication channels with Iran, constructing a road bridge and setting up a customs and border checkpoint. These projects, further accelerated by a meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in May, have lessened the immediate urgency of the “Zangezur corridor.” The easing of regional tensions with Iran has diminished the corridor’s strategic importance for Azerbaijan.
Iran has expressed strong support for lifting the regional blockade but insists that this should respect Armenian sovereignty. Iranian Ambassador to Armenia Mehdi Sobhani articulated this position during a recent conversation with journalists. “Our stance on the blockade is unequivocal: we support its removal, provided that the process respects the sovereignty of Armenia,” Sobhani stated.
When asked about the consequences of a delay in lifting the blockade, Sobhani emphasized the importance of mutual agreement. “It is expected that removing the blockade would lead to increased traffic, but this must be achieved through mutual consent and negotiation. If such an agreement is reached, it signifies progress towards peace, which benefits the entire region and its peoples. We support all efforts aimed at establishing stable and lasting peace,” he said.
Azerbaijan’s decision comes as it seeks to bolster its international image. With parliamentary elections scheduled for September and COP29 approaching, Baku aims to avoid further controversy. The country’s significant reliance on oil and gas, coupled with its advocacy for increased investment in fossil fuels, stand in stark contrast to the climate-centric goals of COP meetings. This disparity has led to concerns about Azerbaijan’s qualifications to host a conference focused on climate issues and hesitancy among some companies to participate.
The move to temporarily shelve the “Zangezur corridor” discussions can be viewed as a strategy to mitigate criticism and foster a favorable international image during this crucial period.
Domestic political considerations also play a role in this decision. In Armenia, there is growing public dissent regarding the government’s handling of negotiations with Azerbaijan. Recent protests have pressured PM Pashinyan to assertively defend national interests. By postponing discussions on the “Zangezur corridor,” Azerbaijan may aim to avoid exacerbating political instability in Armenia, which could potentially lead to a change in leadership less amenable to compromise.
Pro-government analysts in Armenia support Aliyev’s view, arguing that any mention of reunification with Artsakh poses a territorial threat and contradicts international norms. They contend that Artsakh should be recognized as part of Azerbaijan, dismissing Armenia’s historic claims. Critics of this perspective point out that historical maps and documents, such as the Wilsonian arbitration award, show Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) as part of Armenia. Furthermore, the 1921 Kars Treaty, which transferred Artsakh to Soviet Azerbaijan, was made between entities that are no longer internationally recognized and does not align with international legal standards.
Azerbaijan’s demands that Armenia remove references to Artsakh from its legal documents and dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group could be seen as part of a strategy to force Armenia into a position from which negotiating a resolution to the Artsakh conflict in its favor will become increasingly difficult.
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