YEREVAN—On the eve of the eighth commemoration of the Four-Day War in April 2016, during which Azerbaijan launched an attack on Artsakh, Armenia and Azerbaijan traded accusations of ceasefire violations along their shared borders.
The Azerbaijani Ministry alleged that on April 1, 2024, between 10:00 and 10:10 at night, units of the Armenian Armed Forces fired towards Azerbaijani positions in the southwestern border zone in Nakhichevan.
Armenia’s Defense Ministry denied this claim, stating that “no violations were recorded in the directions mentioned in the statement by the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan.” It responded that Azerbaijani forces initiated gunfire toward Armenian positions in Kut in the Gegharkunik province on April 1 at 10:00 p.m. and in Tegh in the Syunik province on April 2 shortly after midnight.
The traded accusations follow a campaign of disinformation launched by Azerbaijan. On March 31, allegations surfaced from Azerbaijani sources purporting that the Armenian military was in the process of mobilizing forces along their shared border.
Against the backdrop of heightened tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the Ministry of Defense of Armenia denied the allegations propagated by Azerbaijani authorities. Azerbaijan, through official channels, asserted that Armenia was actively mobilizing its armed forces, accumulating weaponry and fortifying positions along the border, in preparation for an imminent attack.
However, upon thorough investigation, Armenia’s Ministry of Defense determined that Azerbaijan’s claims were unfounded and aimed at manipulating public perception to create a false narrative that could potentially lay the groundwork for a future offensive against Armenia’s sovereign territory.
Despite Azerbaijan’s attempts to cast Armenia in an aggressive light, Armenian authorities said that measures undertaken by their armed forces were purely defensive in nature. These measures were enacted to safeguard Armenia’s territorial integrity and ensure the security and well-being of its citizens.
“The RA Ministry of Defense assesses the recent operational situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani state border as stable and does not perceive the need to implement additional measures to protect the border,” the Defense Ministry said.
Similarly, the EU monitoring mission deployed in Armenia dismissed any notion of an Armenian military buildup along the frontier. In a post on X, the mission affirmed tranquility along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border throughout their patrols.
Toivo Klaar, the EU’s special representative to the South Caucasus, retweeted the post, emphasizing the mission’s role in providing transparency and building confidence. He underscored the mission’s readiness for further engagement with Azerbaijan.
Good to have confirmation from @EUmARMENIA that no unusual military movements have been observed. That is what the purpose of the mission is: to provide greater transparency and build confidence. It remains open to more engagement also with the authorities of
. https://t.co/hIxU5wvqTh
— Toivo Klaar (@ToivoKlaar) March 31, 2024
. Amid escalating tensions, Baku has intensified its criticism of the EU mission and the EU as a whole ahead of Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan’s upcoming trilateral meeting in Brussels with the EU and U.S. Azerbaijani authorities have portrayed the meeting as evidence of Western bias towards Armenia, alleging encouragement of destabilizing actions.
Armenian circles have speculated that Baku could launch offensive military operations to disrupt the Brussels talks. Pashinyan has also voiced his concerns, accusing Azerbaijan of seeking excuses to instigate a large-scale conflict in the region.
During a press conference with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on April 3, French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné expressed concern over the increasing intensity of Azerbaijan’s rhetoric and dissemination of propaganda. He emphasized the importance of vigilance in the lead-up to the 29th Climate Conference (COP 29), which will be hosted by Azerbaijan.
“We see an increasing number of fake news as well coming from Baku, and they tend to blame Armenia for the responsibility of an escalation, even though Armenia is probably the only one willing and trying to avoid it in this part of the world,” Séjourné said.
During a news briefing on April 2, U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller emphasized the importance of maintaining calm amidst escalating tensions in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict zone. Miller reiterated the United States’ stance, cautioning against any rhetoric or actions that could lead to increased hostilities along the border.
In response to Baku’s claims of military provocations by Yerevan, particularly in light of Prime Minister Pashinyan’s upcoming meeting with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Miller sought to assuage Azerbaijani concerns. He clarified that the discussions in Brussels were primarily focused on Armenia’s internal reforms, democracy, economy and resilience, rather than the peace process.
The unprecedented talks between Blinken, von der Leyen and Pashinyan appear as a display of Western support for Armenia’s efforts to distance itself from Russia. However, Moscow has predictably criticized these developments, highlighting the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region.
Azerbaijani government-controlled media outlets have also reported impending military action unless Armenia withdraws from four disputed border areas in Armenia’s Tavush province. In another tweet, Klaar condemned these threats against Armenia, reaffirming the EU’s commitment to regional stability.
“Threats against Armenia in Azerbaijani media channels are unacceptable. Genuine negotiations on border delimitation are needed and all territorial disputes must be settled peacefully and as part of an agreed process,” Klaar wrote on X on March 25.
On April 3, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken engaged in a crucial phone conversation with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The discussion centered on Azerbaijan’s concerns regarding the upcoming tripartite meeting in Brussels.
According to Azerbaijani media, Secretary Blinken emphasized the importance of addressing these concerns directly with President Aliyev. The focal point of the impending meeting, Blinken highlighted, would be centered on the economic development of Armenia.
In the wake of escalating tensions, residents of the Voskepar village in the Tavush province have voiced deep apprehensions in a handwritten letter delivered directly to PM Pashinyan regarding recent statements from the Armenian government concerning the potential return of areas adjacent to their settlement to Azerbaijan.
The message, signed by nearly all members of the community, outlined the historical context and challenges faced by the region, stemming from the intricate border arrangements inherited from the Soviet era. Residents recounted instances of violence and kidnappings by Azerbaijani forces along border roads following the collapse of the USSR, emphasizing the sacrifices made to secure their right to live and move freely.
Amidst discussions of territorial integrity, residents expressed staunch opposition to any territorial concessions, highlighting concerns about the safety and security of their families and communities. They underscored the strategic significance of maintaining existing defense lines and reiterated their determination to defend their homeland at any cost.
Residents urged Prime Minister Pashinyan to explore alternative solutions that would not compromise their security or infringe upon their fundamental rights. They emphasized the enduring history and cultural heritage of their villages, dating back centuries, and affirmed their commitment to safeguarding their way of life.
Residents voiced hope that their concerns would be taken into consideration, urging the government to prioritize the protection of their communities and the preservation of Armenia’s territorial integrity.
Three weeks prior, Pashinyan had expressed his readiness to unilaterally hand over four villages in Tavush to Azerbaijan, eliciting backlash from residents and political opponents alike.
Discontent with Pashinyan’s actions can be seen in the results of a recent survey conducted by MPG LLC, a full member of the “GALLUP International Association” in Armenia. The survey revealed that a staggering 75-percent of citizens hold a negative view of Pashinyan’s performance as prime minister. Only eight-percent of respondents expressed a positive assessment.
Aram Navasardyan, director of MPG LLC, highlighted the significant shift in public opinion since January 2023. He noted that while 13.8-percent of citizens viewed Pashinyan’s work positively in January, and 16.2-percent in March, this figure has dwindled to eight-percent in one year. Additionally, nearly 20-percent of respondents indicated a rather negative evaluation, with a striking 47.1-percent expressing an overall negative assessment.
Navasardyan emphasized the gravity of these findings, describing them as highly revealing and unprecedented in their magnitude.
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