YEREVAN—Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has called Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s recent provocative statements damaging to the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.
In a January 10 interview, Aliyev unveiled a comprehensive strategy that encompasses political alignment with Moscow, territorial demands against Armenia, and a dismissal of historical maps, marking a significant shift in the region’s geopolitical landscape.
These remarks prompted a strong response from Pashinyan. “I consider Baku’s latest statements a serious blow to the peace process,” Pashinyan said on January 13. He highlighted the importance of the border delimitation process, emphasizing that its goal is not to create a new border but to reproduce the borders that existed at the time of the Almaty Declaration of 1991. Pashinyan accused Azerbaijan of attempting to form territorial claims against Armenia.
President Aliyev’s recent call for an unhindered road through Meghri, Armenia, has raised eyebrows, underscoring a deepening political alliance with Russia. During the January 10 interview, Aliyev reiterated his demand for a corridor without border controls passing through southern Armenia and insisted that the route should be monitored by Russian soldiers. Aliyev’s emphasis on the need for Russian control adds complexity to the geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus and is seen as a Turkish-backed project by Ani Avetyan of the Voskanapat Analytic Center.
Aliyev has rejected Armenia’s proposal to use Soviet-era maps from 1975 as the basis for negotiations, challenging the foundation of diplomatic talks. Azerbaijan has asserted its unwillingness to retreat from territories occupied during the 2021 conflict, hinting at potential expansionist ambitions. The Azerbaijani leader’s historical revisionism, dismissing maps predating the 1970s, has wider implications for the negotiation process.
Armenia faces challenges in navigating the intricate geopolitics of the South Caucasus as Azerbaijan’s strategic realignment and territorial aspirations unfold. The international community is closely watching for potential consequences stemming from these evolving dynamics.
President Aliyev’s recent three-hour interview, marking the beginning of his pre-election campaign, provided insight into his views on ongoing Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations. Varuzhan Geghamyan, a scholar of Turkish history, highlighted 10 key points that underpin Aliyev’s strategy:
- Border Ambiguity: The proposed “peace treaty” avoids specifying the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, potentially enabling Azerbaijan to violate the agreement at any time without a defined border.
- Territorial Retention: Azerbaijan will not release internationally recognized territories of Armenia occupied after November 2020, dismissing the idea of a “mirror withdrawal of troops” proposed by Armenia.
- Unilateral Agreement: Azerbaijan aims to sign the document without an international intermediary, allowing for potential violations without international complications.
- Blockade Continuation: Azerbaijan plans to maintain a complete blockade of Armenia and will not open the border, aligning with Turkey’s position.
- Village Liberation: Azerbaijan insists on retaking eight villages inside Armenia’s borders as enclaves it claims are currently occupied by Armenia, demanding mini-corridors to the enclaves for Azerbaijani inhabitants.
- Syunik Corridor: Azerbaijan seeks a corridor through the Syunik province of Armenia, specifically through the town Meghri, as the “shortest and most convenient way” to its exclave Nakhichevan.
- Capture of Leaders: Aliyev expresses intent to capture former presidents Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan.
- Turkic Place Names: Aliyev consistently uses Turkic place names for Armenian areas, reflecting a broader effort to shape Azerbaijani societal perceptions.
- Confidence in Gas Supply: Azerbaijan, a key gas supplier to the European Union, asserts confidence in managing Western pressure, emphasizing the need for strategic dealings with Russia.
- Peace Treaty Manipulation: The interview suggests that Azerbaijan may not seek peaceful coexistence with Armenia, viewing the “peace treaty” as a manipulation to weaken Armenian resistance. Concessions from Armenia on these points may lead to further demands from Azerbaijan and Turkey, reminiscent of the dangers faced by Syunik and Jermuk after concessions on the Artsakh issue.
Artak Zakaryan, a member of the executive body of the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), expressed strong opposition to Aliyev’s recent declaration that Yerevan and Jermuk belong to Azerbaijan. In an interview with ABC media, Zakaryan highlighted that the issue of the right to self-determination of the people of Artsakh can only be considered closed by adhering to international norms and legislation.
Zakaryan emphasized that, according to international legislation, illegal actions have taken place against the people of Artsakh, including ethnic cleansing, forced displacement and risks of genocide. He urged the governing authorities of Armenia to approach the problem from the perspective of protecting their own interests rather than justifying Aliyev’s illegal demands.
The RPA official said the Armenian people should not be criticized for expressing their historical memory and accused the authorities of giving Azerbaijan the opportunity to make territorial claims against Armenia, referring to “Western Azerbaijan,” an irredentist concept used by Azerbaijan against Armenia. Zakaryan cautioned that such actions risk handing over the Republic of Armenia on a platter or, at the very least, preparing the ground for phased actions.
“[Armenians] patiently wait and hope that something good can happen from the conspirators, but it won’t happen. There will be deception, new losses, new victims, attempts at groundless explanations, searches for new culprits in other places, and an extension of one’s own infamous power,” Zakaryan said.
As tensions rise over territorial claims, the concerns of the people of Armenia regarding Azerbaijan’s assertions and the region’s stability increase.
Tatev Hayrapetyan, an expert on Azerbaijan, provided insight into the Armenian government’s reaction to Aliyev’s statements. Hayrapetyan argued that propaganda sites and expert circles close to Pashinyan are attempting to downplay Aliyev’s speech as connected to pre-election events. However, she emphasized that Aliyev’s statements have been consistent over the past year, indicating a more profound and longstanding plan for the occupation of Armenian territories.
Hayrapetyan urged the removal of Pashinyan and his team as essential to prevent the danger of war and maintain regional stability. She criticized the Armenian authorities for remaining silent and making concessions instead of presenting Azerbaijan’s policies to the international community, emphasizing that the de facto dictatorial regime in Baku is becoming a real threat to regional stability.
Author information
The post Pashinyan calls Aliyev’s statements a blow to the peace process appeared first on The Armenian Weekly.