YEREVAN— Following an agreement made on October 7 between the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan, the exchange of Armenian and Azerbaijani prisoners of war took place today on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, in the region of Ijevan and Kazakh.
The offices of the Armenian Prime Minister and the Azerbaijani President released a joint statement announcing the mutual release of detainees, with Baku freeing 32 Armenian servicemen and Yerevan releasing two Azerbaijani servicemen. The timing coincided with the visit of U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James O’Brien to Baku. While it was considered a positive step by several countries, the announcement was seen as a result of direct negotiations between the two countries.
According to information shared by the Azerbaijani APA agency, Armenian nationals who were captive in Azerbaijan were detained during a supposed “counter-terrorism operation” in the Hadrut region of Artsakh in December 2020, a month after the end of the 2020 Artsakh War. The remaining six individuals were apprehended at various border points.
Human rights advocate Siranush Sahakyan has reported that, according to official data, Azerbaijan still holds 55 Armenians, including 41 prisoners of war, eight former Artsakh leaders and six civilians. She added that there is unofficial data regarding at least 80 prisoners of war and civilians held without investigations into their statuses.
The joint statement states that Armenia and Azerbaijan mutually acknowledge a “historical chance to achieve a long-awaited peace in the region.” Both nations reiterated their commitment to normalizing relations and forging a peace treaty based on principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. After deliberations between the Armenia’s prime minister’s office and the president’s administration of Azerbaijan, an agreement was reached to take “tangible steps towards building confidence between the two countries,” the statement declared.
Furthermore, the Armenian administration expressed support for Azerbaijan’s bid to host the 29th Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29), withdrawing its own candidacy. Azerbaijan reciprocated by supporting Armenia’s candidacy for membership in the COP Bureau of the Eastern European Group.
Both countries anticipate further discussions to implement trust-building measures in the near future. They “call on the international community to support their efforts that will contribute to building mutual trust between two countries and will positively impact the entire South Caucasus region.”
However, concerns have arisen regarding the sincerity of such commitments. This skepticism arose due to the recent sentencing of Gagik Voskanyan, who was handed an 18-year prison term by a court in Baku following the announcement of the return of POWs. Voskanyan was part of the group of Armenian prisoners repatriated today.
Voskanyan faced a range of charges, including terrorism, arms smuggling and illegal border crossing, among other alleged offenses. Many observers believe the case against him to be fabricated. Throughout the legal proceedings, Voskanyan vehemently maintained his innocence.
The incident involving Voskanyan captured global attention after Armenia’s Ministry of Defense released a video on August 16, 2023. The footage depicted Azerbaijani Armed Forces soldiers engaging with Voskanyan, subsequently arresting him and escorting him to an undisclosed location. This incident and the fact that former state and military officials of Artsakh continue to be detained in Baku raise doubts about Azerbaijan’s commitment to the promised release of prisoners of war.
The “historic opportunity to achieve long-awaited peace in the region” asserted in the joint statement has been critically dissected by analysts, emphasizing the ongoing series of aggressive actions against Armenia, including recent fatalities at the border. Additionally, the statement reaffirmed intentions to establish a peace treaty based on principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. Yet, recent remarks by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev regarding access to exclave Nakhichevan through Armenia raise questions about Azerbaijan’s readiness to respect Armenia’s sovereignty, particularly as it pertains to border controls and customs.
Aliyev initially promised to exchange prisoners on November 9, in order to portray the potential success of direct negotiations. Azerbaijan has recently declined to participate in meetings mediated by the West, instead insisting on direct talks with Armenia. This shift towards direct negotiations has sidelined established international mediators and threatened Armenia’s position. Yerevan-based analyst Tigran Grigoryan argued that Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan, through engaging in these direct talks, might be pressured into further concessions without effective oversight or accountability.
Despite this development, intermediary efforts have still been in play. The EU Eastern Partnership Foreign Ministers’ Conference in Brussels on December 11-12 indicated the potential meeting of Armenian and Azerbaijani ministers, though no separate talks have been announced.
In a recent announcement, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov expressed Baku’s expectation of mutual sincerity and commitment from Armenia, stressing the significance of maintaining peace and neighborly relations without falling victim to short-term geopolitical maneuvers.
“Peace and neighborly relations should not be sacrificed to some short-sighted geopolitical speculation,” Bayramov stated, underlining the necessity for collective efforts akin to the European model. Bayramov urged for mutual tolerance from Armenia and called upon EU member states to support the peace process without causing any disruptions.
This statement seems to echo the recent joint declaration between the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan, emphasizing bilateral negotiations. Such an approach appears aimed at facilitating Azerbaijani interests within the realm of negotiations with the government of Armenia, according to Haykakan Alik.
Key global stakeholders have weighed in on the joint statement made by the leaders of both nations, expressing views on the release of detainees and the prospects for peace in the South Caucasus.
Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stressed the urgency of signing an early peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, emphasizing its potential as a pivotal step towards sustainable peace and stability in the region.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, conveyed Moscow’s welcome of the mutual agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan to normalize relations and sign a peace treaty. Zakharova commended the release of prisoners and the concrete support extended by both Yerevan and Baku in international organizations.
The U.S. State Department lauded the joint statement by Pashinyan and Aliyev. The United States emphasized the significance of the commitment made by both parties, highlighting it as a crucial confidence-building measure, pivotal for the forthcoming peace agreement and normalization of relations.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Josep Borrell echoed the sentiment of a historic opportunity for peace in the region. He reaffirmed the EU’s dedication to supporting the ongoing efforts. Borrell emphasized the joint statement’s pivotal nature, considering it a substantial political step forward.
Javier Colomina, NATO Secretary General’s Special Representative in the Caucasus and Central Asia, welcomed the mutual release of detainees and other confidence-building measures declared in the joint statement by Armenia and Azerbaijan. Colomina underscored NATO’s firm backing for these efforts, emphasizing support for the normalization of relations between the two nations.
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